On 6 October 2025, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $128,198. On Tuesday 6 October 2026, one year later, it opened at $85,750 and rose as high as $86,230, which was 30.6 per cent below the record high. On Wednesday morning, it fell again to the $83,500–$84,000 range. Over the past week, it is up 2.7 per cent and up 7.4 per cent over the past month, according to data from Yahoo Finance.
The $87,570 barrier
The figure the market is watching is $87,570, the price at which it opened in 2026. Bitcoin closed last week at $86,532, its highest weekly close since late January, and briefly touched $87,000 on some exchanges, but failed to break through the annual opening price. This is the fourth attempt since 21 September.
The Rekt Capital analyst describes Bitcoin as being ‘stuck’ between the support level of $82,500 and the resistance level of $86,700. If it breaks decisively upwards, it opens up a new range capped at $93,700. If it falls below $82,500, the market will return to the $60,000–$80,000 range where it traded during the first half of 2026.
Why is October considered ‘friendly’?
The third quarter of 2026 ended with gains of over 40 per cent, the best third quarter since 2017. According to CoinGlass data, October has averaged a return of 18.7% since 2013 and has seen only three negative years out of thirteen, with 2014 being the worst (−13%). Historically, the first three days of the month have been slightly negative (−0.66 per cent), but this year they closed at +1.4 per cent.
The Fed, government bonds and Citi
The macroeconomic outlook is the most challenging of the year. In September, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75 per cent–4 per cent, the first move of 2026 following three cuts at the end of 2025. The yield on the US 10-year bond reached 5.34 per cent last week, its highest level since 2002, whilst the 30-year yield stood at 5.69 per cent. On Wednesday, the Fed’s minutes will be published and the 10-year bond auction will take place. On 14 October, the September inflation figures will be released.
The likelihood of a further rise in October fell to 18 per cent from 70 per cent a week earlier, mainly because Friday’s employment figures came in weaker than expected. This was what sent Bitcoin above 86,000 on Monday, the same day that Wall Street hit new record highs. A rate rise in December remains the base case scenario.
Against this backdrop, Citigroup raised its 12-month target for Bitcoin to $113,000 from $82,000, and for Ethereum to $3,028 from $2,240, citing stronger market activity, a more supportive macroeconomic environment and a return of inflows into ETFs.
Ethereum and the rest
Ethereum is trading at around $2,710, 40 per cent lower than last year. Its next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, is scheduled for the fourth quarter, although no date has yet been set for the mainnet. In the US, Robinhood has added $25 million worth of Bitcoin to its balance sheet, according to The Block.
For anyone following the market from Greece, the picture this week is simple: as long as bond yields remain at 20-year highs, Bitcoin is struggling to break away from the 87,000 mark. The next direction will become clear from the reaction to the Fed’s minutes and the inflation figures on 14 October.
Source: Cointelegraph 5 October 2026, Yahoo Finance 1 and 6 October 2026 (Reuters regarding the Citi report), CoinGlass and CryptoQuant data as cited.
